Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3024

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

December 20 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 38 29 55 51
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 76 57 83 113
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 4 2 8 12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 194 101 128 137
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 37 28 64 63
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 8 5 9 8
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 2 5
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 36 34 38 83
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 31 81 98 90
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 13 22 12 9
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 36 19 25 51
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 65 163 126 96
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 46 58 67 48
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 44 44 53 37
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 21 20 72 50

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 2 6
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 3 9 13 11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 1 4
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 7 5 3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 6 5 4 3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 10 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.08
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.12 0.00 0.11 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.18 0.08 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.13 0.09 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.10 0.07 0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.11 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.49 0.13 0.12 0.26
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.23 0.17 0.24 0.37
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.23 0.16 0.19 0.43
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.16 0.18 0.37 0.29
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.67 0.26 0.06 0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.39 0.32 0.21 0.08
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.28 0.17 0.39 0.16
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.26 0.23 0.29 0.22
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.17 0.13 0.26 0.45
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.04 0.17 0.46 0.33
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.17 0.55 0.20 0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.38
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.17
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.36 0.31 0.15 0.17
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.39 0.22 0.08 0.31
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.03 0.03 0.85 0.09

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.45 0.15 0.15 0.26
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.23 0.18 0.24 0.34
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.23 0.17 0.20 0.39
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.18 0.20 0.34 0.28
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.59 0.26 0.10 0.06
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.36 0.30 0.22 0.12
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.27 0.19 0.37 0.17
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.23
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.18 0.15 0.26 0.41
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.19 0.42 0.32
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.19 0.49 0.21 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.26 0.20 0.18 0.36
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.18
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.34 0.30 0.17 0.19
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.36 0.23 0.11 0.30
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.07 0.73 0.12

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.03, 0.09) (0.00, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07) (0.02, 0.09)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.09) (0.02, 0.10) (0.03, 0.10) (0.04, 0.11)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.01, 0.13) (0.01, 0.14) (0.02, 0.20)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.13) (0.02, 0.16) (0.02, 0.15)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.06) (0.01, 0.06) (0.00, 0.04) (0.00, 0.03)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.10) (0.01, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.01, 0.12) (0.02, 0.16) (0.00, 0.12)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.10) (0.01, 0.13) (0.01, 0.14) (0.01, 0.13)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.09) (0.02, 0.11) (0.03, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.11) (0.05, 0.14) (0.07, 0.16) (0.06, 0.16)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.04, 0.20) (0.02, 0.14) (0.00, 0.11)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.10) (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.11) (0.03, 0.13)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.07) (0.02, 0.07) (0.02, 0.07) (0.01, 0.07)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.05, 0.12) (0.04, 0.13) (0.03, 0.10) (0.02, 0.11)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.10) (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.11)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.00, 0.09) (0.07, 0.17) (0.02, 0.11)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.015, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.004. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.01, 0.02) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date